The sad irony of any Broadway season is that when there isn't a big musical hit, as is the case this year, the Tony Awards become far more unpredictable and exciting. I happen to be a consistent winner of Tony prediction polls, but almost every category this year is debatable. Let's review the most intriguing case scenarios.
Best Musical:
What Will Win: "Memphis"
What Should Win: "Memphis" (at least I think so, unlike other critics rooting for the vastly overrated "Fela!")
The race is between "Fela!" and "Memphis." Both are doing alright financially, but neither is a big hit. While "Fela!" is a mix of an African concert and political diatribe with no real story, "Memphis" is a traditionally constructed musical that is more likely to appeal to tourists. Though there is a small possibility of "Fela!" pulling an upset, expect "Memphis" to win. "American Idiot," which was once thought to be the clear favorite, has received far less enthusiasm than expected. "Million Dollar Quartet" is lucky to have been nominated at all over "Come Fly Away" and "The Addams Family."
Best Play:
What Will Win: "Red"
What Should Win: "Red"
"Red," the two-hander about moody painter Mark Rothko and his pupil, will easily win over "Next Fall," a hospital room drama that has yet to find an audience. "In the Next Room" has already closed. And while "Time Stands Still" is in fact coming back to Broadway, its current lack of visibility hurts its chance of winning.
Best Musical Revival:
What Will Win: "La Cage Aux Folles"
What Should Win: "Finian's Rainbow"
Best Revival of a Musical: The gritty and spare revision of "La Cage Aux Folles" has the most momentum, though an upset from "A Little Night Music" is not impossible. "Ragtime" and "Finian's Rainbow" were bigger and stronger revivals, but they flopped and shuttered back in January.
Best Play Revival:
What Will Win: "Fences"
What Deserves to Win: "A View from the Bridge"
"A View from the Bridge" was the most well-directed and acted production I saw this entire season. From start to finish, it was absolutely masterful and gripping. But "Fences" moved into its theater and is now the hit ticket in town.
Best Actor in a Play
Who Will Win: Alfred Molina or Denzel Washington, totally unpredictable. If I had to guess, I'd say Washington.
Who Deserves to Win: Alfred Molina or Liev Schrieber
When the audience enters "Red," the now-bald Molina is already onstage staring deeply into his painting. From then on, his performance is uniformly intense. Schrieber was hauntingly real and believable as Eddie in "A View from the Bridge." But then there's Washington, who returned from his panned performance in "Julius Caesar" five years ago to deliver a damn impressive performance in "Fences." It's up in the air.
Best Actress in a Play:
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Who Deserves to Win: Viola Davis
Unlike the competition faced by her male co-star, Viola Davis, who plays Denzel Washington's mistreated wife in "Fences," has it in the bag.
Best Actor in a Musical:
Who Will Win: Douglas Hodge
Who Deserves to Win: Sean Hayes
Douglas Hodge will win for his cross-dressing flamboyance in "La Cage Aux Folles" over the fiery Sahr Ngaujah in "Fela!." But so far as I'm concerned, Hayes deserves the award. He makes an incredibly difficult role work, having to narrate to the audience, win its support, and deal with a totally miscast co-star. He certainly has my sympathy.
Best Actress in a Musical:
Who Will Win: Catherine Zeta-Jones or Montego Glover, again unpredictable. If I had to guess, I'd say Jones.
Who Deserves to Win: Montego Glover or Sherie Rene Scott
A toss-up between Catherine Zeta-Jones, who glows with star presence in "A Little Night Music," and Montego Glover, the hard-working lead of "Memphis." A coin toss.
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Who Will Win: Stephen McKinley Henderson or Eddie Redmayne. Difficult to predict, probably Henderson.
Who Deserves to Win: Jon Michael Hill
As good as Eddie Redmayne is, his character is really just a device for Alfred Molina to play off with. Henderson manages to stand out among both Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, and has the "Fences" momentum in his favor.
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Who Will Win: Scarlett Johansson or Jan Maxwell, probably Johansson
Who Deserves to Win: Scarlett Johansson or Jan Maxwell
Scarlett Johansson was surprisingly brilliant in "A View from the Bridge," but Broadway trooper Jan Maxwell made headlines by receiving two nominations at once and deserves some recognition. Still, while Maxwell is simply having fun in a zany role, Johansson fully inhabitted a dramatic and difficult role.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Who Will Win: Seriously, it's anybody's game, but I foresee Levi Kreis
Who Deserves to Win: Bobby Steggert or Christopher Fitzgerald
This is the hardest category of all to predict. Bobby Steggert and Christopher Fitzgerald gave stellar performances in "Ragtime" and "Finian's Rainbow" respectively, but their shows closed months ago. Robin de Jesus is a hoot in "La Cage," but has such a minor role. Kevin Chamberlin is fine as Uncle Fester, but "Addams Family" is so awful. Levi Kreis, an unknown Chicago-based actor who stands out as Jerry Lee Lewis in "Million Dollar Quartet," could pull ahead of the crowd.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Who Will Win: Katie Finneran
Who Deserves to Win: Katie Finneran or Angela Lansbury
Katie Finneran makes just a cameo in "Promises, Promises," but its the show's best ten minutes. Not even Angela Lansbury outshines her, who could conceivably make history by winning six Tony Awards.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Who Will Win: Terry Johnson
Who Deserves to Win: Christopher Ashley
Bill T. Jones is the undisputed force behind "Fela!," but Terry Johnson impressively reimagined "La Cage." As much as I'd like to see Christopher Ashley win for his stellar work bringing together the production elements and strong performances of "Memphis," his directorial imprint is more subtle and therefore less easily noticeable. Ashley let his show speak for itself.
Best Direction of a Play:
Who Will Win: Michael Grandage or Kenny Leon, probably Leon
Who Deserves to Win: Gregory Mosher
It's between Michael Grandage ("Red") and Kenny Leon ("Fences"). Grandage's polish over "Red" is more clearly evident, but everyone seems to be so happy with how "Fences" turned out. Too bad "A View from the Bridge" isn't still running, which was exceptionally well-directed by Mosher.
Best Choreography:
Who Will Win: Twyla Tharp or Bill T. Jones, probably Tharp
Who Deserves to Win: Rob Ashford
Twyla Tharp's suave ballroom dancing is more memorable than Bill T. Jones' wild African moves. But as for me, Ashford managed to restage "Promises, Promises" with 1960s panache, consistent style and wildly athletic segments. He even found a way to convincingly rework "Turkey Lurkey."
Best Score:
What Will Win: Memphis
What Deserves to Win: Memphis
"Memphis" is a really solid score, incorporating the feel-good finale "Steal Your Rock 'n' Roll" and showstopper "Radio" with the 11 o'clock anthem "Memphis Lives in Me" and other emotional spots. "The Addams Family" is a disappointment, and neither of the two nominated plays could possibly win. Let's hope and pray that this category isn't such an absolute embarassment this time next year.
Best Book of a Musical:
What Will Win: Memphis
What Deserves to Win: Memphis
"Memphis" is a genuine book musical, unlike the other shows nominated for Best Musical. It's not a hokey revue, political diatribe or plotless rock concert. "Memphis" is a well-developed story with two complex characters. "Everyday Rapture" is well-done as a solo show, but nowhere near as compelling as the work in "Memphis."
Best Orchestrations:
What Will Win: Memphis or Fela!, Memphis
What Deserves to Win: Promises, Promises
I don't really understand why "Promises, Promises" is nominated for orchestrations. Jonathan Tunick wrote the original orchestrations, and they weren't much changed, though perhaps reduced a bit, for this revival. But in any case, the "Promises, Promises" orchestrations remain fabulous and the best of the lot. But between "Memphis" and "Fela!," it's a tossup, but I'd have to imagine "Memphis" mainly because the winner for Best Score usually will also win Best Orchestrations. Then again, "Fela!" has an edge because it has such a louder sound and the band is onstage the entire show and has more of a constant presence. It's already even playing music as the audience enters.
Best Set Design of a Play:
What Will Win: Red
What Deserves to Win: Red
It's not a huge set, for the design of Mark Rothko's studio, with its many canvases, is haunting, detailed and perfectly intimate.
Best Set Design of a Musical:
What Will Win: La Cage aux Folles or American Idiot, probably American Idiot
I think the voters will throw "American Idiot" a bone for its unique set design of industrial scaffolding and television screens. Then again, the sparse, intimate and gritty "La Cage" set is pretty impressive too.
Best Costume Design of a Musical:
What Will Win: "La Cage aux Folles"
What Deserves to Win: "La Cage aux Folles"
Come on. Drag queens looking as outrageous as can be, particularly those thoroughly fabulous Les Cagelles.
Best Lighting Design of a Play:
What Will Win: Red
What Deserves to Win: Red
Michael Grandage's direction of "Red" uses every available production element - lighting, sound, set - to maximum effect. The lighting in particular emphasizes the dark and dank atmosphere of the artist studio.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
What Will Win: Fela! or American Idiot, probably Fela!
What Deserves to Win: Fela! or American Idiot
I'm not a fan of "Fela!," but its invasive and eclectic lighting scheme is pretty extraordinary. But the same could be said of "American Idiot."
Best Sound Design of a Play:
What Will Win: Fences or Red, probably Fences
What Deserves to Win: Red
"Fences" has a strong jazz score, but the score is different from the sound design. The scene where Rothko and his assistant furiously cover a canvas in "Red" with musical accompaniment is one of the truly great moments of the Broadway season. Still, I suspect the momentum for "Fences" will simply carry over.
Best Sound Design of a Musical:
What Will Win: Sondheim on Sondheim or Fela!, probably Fela!
What Deserves to Win: Sondheim on Sondheim or Fela!
While "Sondheim on Sondheim" was a disappointment artistically, it's best element was its incorporation of video and audio by Stephen Sondheim featured alongside the live performers. Fela!, on the other hand, does also mixes a hot band, loud chanting and some multimedia. Tough call.